• At 8am EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Ernesto was located 145 miles east of the Nicaragua/Honduras border, or about 730 miles south of Miami, Florida.
  • Ernesto has slowed down overnight and is now moving towards the west at 12 mph. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today.
  • The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center and computer models have shifted south, but are in excellent agreement, taking Ernesto south of the Cayman Islands today and then north of Honduras tonight and Tuesday before moving inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday.
  • After that time, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to emerge into the southern Bay of Campeche and approach the eastern coast of Mexico near Veracruz on Friday.
  • Maximum sustained winds remain at 50 mph, but light wind shear and warm ocean temperatures should allow for some slow strengthening through the next 48 hours.
  • Ernesto is forecast to remain at tropical storm strength, but there is a slight chance that it could reach minimal hurricane strength before landfall.
  • Ernesto will weaken over land, but may gain some strength in the southwest Gulf of Mexico before making its final landfall in Mexico.
  • There are no watches or warnings in effect for the United States and no part of Florida is within the 5 day error cone or at risk for tropical storm force winds.

  • Further east, Florence weakened into a tropical depression early this morning while located in the central Atlantic about 1600 miles east of the Leeward Islands (2740 miles east-southeast of Miami).
  • Tropical Depression Florence is moving toward the west at 12 mph, but models agree that Florence should turn west-northwest and accelerate over the next couple of days as the storm is steered around the southern edge of a large high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic.
  • Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 35 mph. Additional weakening is expected and should degenerate into a remnant low within the next 36 hours.
  • The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes Florence, or the remnants of Florence toward and then north of the Leeward Islands later this week. Long range models show Florence curving north, east of the U.S. eastern seaboard, this weekend and next week.

  • Closer to home, a weak tropical wave and area of low pressure over the Florida Panhandle and off the east coast of Florida will produce several periods of heavy showers across much of the state today. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat, with forecast rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches and higher amounts of 3-5 inches locally, but lightning will also be a concern.
More information on Tropical Storm Ernesto and Tropical Depression  Florence can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Amy Godsey
State Meteorologist
State Watch Officer
Florida Division of Emergency Management