The State Emergency Operations Center went on partial activation late Wednesday after the National Hurricane Center upgraded disturbance 91L to Tropical Storm Andrea. This is not the full activation which would occur with a stronger event and FIC is not staffing its seat at the EOC. FIC will be monitoring EOC reports and participating in conference call briefings.

From the State Emergency Operations Center:

8am Thursday Summary:

  • At 8am Tuesday, Tropical Storm Andrea was located in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico about 160 miles west of Tampa, Florida, or approximately 140 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida.
  • Maximum sustained winds have increased overnight and are now around 60mph, mainly on the east side of the storm. The forward speed has also increased and Andrea is now moving north-northeast 14 mph.
  • A turn to the northeast along with an increase in forward speed is expected today as it is steered ahead of an approaching cold front.
  • Andrea is likely near peak intensity as wind shear and dry air near the storm should be unfavorable enough to preclude any strengthening.
  • NOAA Hurricane Hunters will continue to monitor the strength of the system until landfall.
  • Computer model track guidance, along with the official NHC forecast, take the center of TS Andrea into the Florida Big Bend region later today and then into southeastern Georgia tonight before moving quickly up the US eastern seaboard through the weekend while gradually weakening.
  • Regardless of the track, the primary effects from the storm are already impacting the state, with heavy rainfall expected across much of the Florida Peninsula, minor storm surge coastal flooding along the West Coast of Florida, and isolated tornadoes along the Florida Peninsula. Wind from the tropical storm is not expected to be significant.  

Florida outlook:

  • Tropical Storm Warnings have been extended and now stretch from Boca Grande (Charlotte County) to Indian Pass (Franklin County) along the Gulf Coast and from Flagler Beach (Flagler County) northward into Virginia. Inland counties of Madison, Hamilton, Suwannee, Lafayette, Gilchrist, Columbia, Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Union, Clay, Putnam, Marion, Lake, and Desoto are also included in the Tropical Storm Warning.
  • Portions of the Florida Big Bend and northern Florida Peninsula have a 30-60% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds within the next 24 hours.
  • The combination of storm surge and high tide today could result in water rises of 2-4 feet from Tampa Bay northward into Apalachee Bay, resulting in minor to moderate coastal beach erosion and minor flooding of low lying areas near the coast. Breaking weaves could reach as high as 6 feet at the coast and be as high as 8-12 feet offshore.
  • Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches, with isolated areas up to 6 inches, has already fallen across much of Florida during the past 48 hours. An additional 3-6 inches may occur today along much of the Florida Peninsula and Florida Big Bend, with locally higher amounts up to 8 inches possible.
  • Flood Watches remain in effect for Southwest Florida, all of Central Florida and Northeast Florida, with a Flash Flood Watch for the Florida Big Bend and some eastern Panhandle Counties.
  • Any rainfall amounts above 3 inches within a 3 hours period could lead to flash flooding of localized areas. Run-off from daily rainfall may continue to affect some North Florida rivers and creeks in the days ahead and there is a chance that some rivers and creeks may rise into flood stage by this weekend.
  • Isolated tornadoes remain a threat today. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the Florida Peninsula in a slight risk of severe weather today and a Tornado Watch is in effect for Central and South Florida until 11am. Tornado Watches will likely be extended into this afternoon.

More information on Tropical Storm Andrea can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Amy Godsey
State Meteorologist
State Watch Officer
Florida Division of Emergency Management

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013
700 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

...ANDREA MOVING CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND......POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 85.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO INDIAN PASS
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST. ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL REACH THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA LATER TODAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA...2 TO 5 FT FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT FLAGLER BEACH NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA LANDFALL LOCATION. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE... AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE FLORIDA WEST COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.