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07-16-10
EOC Report Warns Dangerous Hurricane Season Still Ahead, Highlights Historial Landfalls From Sam Miller

This is an excellent report from Amy Godsey, state Division of Emergency Management meteorologist. Amy reminds us of the widespread projections that 2010 will be one of the most active hurricane seasons in history and that, historially, we would not have the first hurricane forming until August 10, so the relative quiet early summer does not really mean anything.

There is a fine report on major Florida landfalls in the past.
EOC Report Warns Dangerous Hurricane Season Still Ahead, Highlights Historial Landfalls
A collaborative effort by
Amy Godsey            and    Michelle Palmer
State Meteorologist            Deputy State Meteorologist

An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center. As with every hurricane season, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.

What's in store for 2010?

On average, the first named storm occurs by July 9, with the second named storm forming by August 1 and the first hurricane forming by August 10. The first storm of the 2010 season, Alex, beat both averages as the first named storm and hurricane in June. With 1 named storm already in the books, there is potentially many more on the horizon.

2010 Storm Names: Alex, Bonnie, Colin (replaced Charley), Danielle, Earl, Fiona (replaced Frances), Gaston, Igor (replaced Ivan), Julia (replaced Jeanne), Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie, Walter).

Summary of 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts

The number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes predicted by various forecasters:
  • 23 named storms: Pennsylvania State University statistical model
  • 20 named storms: UKMET (United Kingdom Meteorology office) GloSea dynamical model
  • 14-23 named storms (average 18.5), 8-14 hurricanes (average 11), 3-7 major hurricanes (average 5): NOAA hybrid model technique
  • 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: Colorado State University (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray)
  • 17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk hybrid model
  • 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes: Florida State University dynamical model
  • 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes: average of all seasons (climatology)
Only four hurricane seasons since 1851 have had at least nineteen named storms, so 4 out of 6 of these pre-season forecasts are calling for a top-five busiest season in history.

At day 45 of the offical dates of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season, about 25% though the 180 day "season", there are also many lessons that can be learned from history. Attached (2010 Anniversaries Timeline) is a look back at Florida's notable hurricanes and storms, arranged by 5 and 10 year anniversary dates from 2010. Some of these storms are famous and recognizable just by hearing the name and some are responsible for shaping Florida's history. All stress the importance of having a plan and being prepared for the worst.